After two years of post-pandemic global supply chain disruptions, the ongoing driver shortage, and rising fuel prices, experts in the field forecasted a gradual recovery in freight and some growth as volume returns to pre-pandemic levels. An increase in consumer spending was expected to impact demand, however economic uncertainty continued to be a concern.
Last year was a turbulent one in the world of transportation and logistics, amid fluctuating fuel prices, continued driver shortages, economic volatility, and a growing freight recession. Nearly two months into the new year, experts are still unsure if consumer demand will increase enough to offset the freight recession or if inflation and the overall global economy will continue to slow down and improve.
Keep reading for Drive My Way’s outlook on the state of the industry in 2024, and find out what are the biggest trends, underlying issues, and expert predictions to keep an eye on this year.
Ongoing Freight Recession and Economic Concerns
The issue on the mind of most experts in the trucking industry going into the new year is how to address the ongoing freight recession that developed in 2023. Although the overall US economy was able to avoid a recession last year, the transportation industry wasn’t as lucky, due to a number of factors.
After two years of a post-pandemic freight boom, consumer spending began to decrease in 2023, bringing overall freight volume down. Coupled with the influx of new carriers that arrived during the boom of the first two years of the pandemic, the trucking industry is now seeing an oversupply of trucks compared to a waning amount of available freight. A notable marker of the market’s volatility was long-standing trucking behemoth Yellow Corporation filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in August of 2023.
Although a recent CNBC Supply Chain Survey confirmed that these difficult economic conditions will continue at least until the end of the first quarter of 2024, the survey did hint at a potential slow increase in demand throughout the second half of the year. Some experts also believe that an upswing will come faster than initially anticipated due to the gradual turnover of the excess carriers that entered during the post-pandemic swell.
With a global economy as volatile and unpredictable as we have witnessed the past three years, carriers should continue to monitor consumer trends and hire accordingly. Consider rightsizing or implementing strategies such as a hiring waitlist while the market continues to stabilize over the course of the year.
Yes, There Still is a Truck Driver Shortage
Despite this unprecedented freight recession, a familiar issue has continued to plague the industry in 2024. The American Trucking Associations (ATA) projected a driver shortage of over 82,000 for 2024, a sharp increase from the 60,000 gap that was projected in 2023.
This increase is due to the fact that carriers are still struggling to recruit and retain quality drivers from newer generations to supplement the drivers that will leave throughout the decade. With the average age of an American trucker being around 47, carriers must focus on new hiring strategies to meet candidates where they are at, while focusing on retention to decrease the industry-wide high turnover rates.
In 2024, continue to keep in mind what drivers are looking for from employers, and how you can streamline your hiring and training processes to cut down on unnecessary spending and save your drivers time and effort.
Keep an Eye on Changing Trends
A key to success in the new year will be flexibility and the fast adaptation to dynamic trends. As consumer buying patterns change and legislation involving trucking continues to be unveiled, every carrier should be ready to pivot when necessary while remaining prepared for the unexpected.
With the steadily increasing rise of e-commerce, it’s important to have the proper infrastructure to optimize last-mile delivery services and real-time tracking. Focus on route optimization and delivery consolidation to prepare for the quick moving and relatively short distance required of e-commerce deliveries.
It’s also important to keep in mind that new environmental regulations for the trucking industry will continue to have a greater impact in 2024. State level policies, such as California’s 2023 Advanced Clean Fleets rule, which plans on transitioning all commercial trucks and vans to zero-emission vehicles by 2045, will likely be felt by an increasing number of carriers and drivers this year. Six states have already pledged to join California, including New York, New Jersey, Oregon, Massachusetts, Washington and Vermont.
When drafting your budgets this year, analyze what changes could be made in the present to lessen the cost and time required down the line to adhere to new sustainability regulations. Although electric vehicles still cost 3% more on average than their diesel counterparts, there are other efforts fleets can make to cut down on emissions, such as improving truck aerodynamics and investing in detailed telematics tracking.
Although it hasn’t been off to a steady start, many experts still believe that 2024 could be a turnaround year for the trucking industry with an uptick in the second half of the year. With breakthroughs in combating supply chain issues and moving the industry towards a more sustainable future, it’s possible that carriers could see positive growth and a larger return on investments by the end of 2024 and into 2025.
For more information on evolving trends in the trucking industry and how to stay ahead of the curve when recruiting and retaining quality drivers, be sure to follow us on social media and stay up to date on our Employer Blog posts.
